Table 1.

Initial Model Inputs

ParameterBase Case ValueData Source
Fixed parameters
 Greater New Orleans area population, n1,262,888Census track data
 Ochsner Greater New Orleans market share, %45Ochsner executive leadership
 Initial infected cases, n10Model assumption for imputation
 Incubation, days5UPENN CHIME
 Duration of symptoms, days10UPENN CHIME
Variable parameters
 R03UPENN CHIME (doubling time of 6 days)
 Hospitalization rate, %9Observed proportion based on Ochsner intensive care unit rate
 Intensive care unit rate, %3UPENN CHIME
 Mechanical ventilation rate, %2Local observed ventilator rate in Ochsner intensive care unit patients
 Hospital length of stay, days7UPENN CHIME
 Intensive care unit length of stay, days11Personal communication with University of Washington critical care
 Mechanical ventilation length of stay, days14Local observed Ochsner length of stay
  • UPENN CHIME, University of Pennsylvania COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics.4