A score to predict the risk of emergency caesarean delivery in women with antepartum bleeding and placenta praevia

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Abstract

Objective

To identify antenatal events associated with emergency caesarean sections in women presenting with antepartum bleeding and placenta praevia and to establish a score to predict the risk of emergency caesarean after a first bleeding episode has resolved.

Study design

This retrospective multicentre study included 250 women presenting with antepartum bleeding and placenta praevia from 20 weeks of gestation until term in three maternity units. The score was constructed from data from 163 women after identification of antenatal risk factors associated with emergency caesareans for profuse bleeding due to placenta praevia. It was validated on a second independent cohort of 87 women.

Results

Three variables were significantly associated with emergency caesareans: major or complete praevia, defined as complete or partial praevia (OR = 33.15 (95% CI 4.3–257); p = 0.001), occurrence of 3 or more episodes of antepartum of uterine bleeding (OR = 2.53 (95% CI 1.1–5.86); p = 0.03), and a first (sentinel) bleeding episode before 29 weeks of gestation (OR = 2.64 (95% CI 1.17–5.98); p = 0.02). A fourth variable, moderate or severe antepartum uterine bleeding, was significantly associated with emergency caesareans in the univariate but not the multivariate analysis (p = 0.006). These four variables were incorporated into a weighted scoring system that included major praevia (4 points), three or more episodes of antepartum bleeding (3), first bleeding episode before 29 weeks of gestation (3), and bleeding episode estimated as moderate or severe (1). A score ≥6/11 had a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 65% for predicting an emergency caesarean in the score development group and 95% and 62% in the validation group.

Conclusion

A scoring system for placenta praevia with previous bleeding events, based on intensity, gestational age at sentinel bleed (before 29 weeks), number of bleeding episodes (≥3) and type of praevia (major) might be helpful to guide obstetric management and especially to determine the need for admission.

Introduction

Placenta praevia (PP) with antepartum bleeding has a reported incidence rate of 0.3–0.5% and is associated with high rates of maternal and fetal morbidity [1]. As the main risk factors for PP – maternal age above 40 years and previous caesarean deliveries [2], [3] – continue to rise, the rates of PP and its complications will increase with them. Maternal risks include antepartum bleeding, intrapartum and postpartum haemorrhage, and need for hysterectomy and blood transfusion [1], [4], [5], [6]. Outcomes of pregnancies complicated by PP are highly variable, and it is difficult to predict antenatal events of heavy and sudden uterine haemorrhaging that requires emergency caesarean delivery. Guidelines (most recently republished in 2011) by the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists [7] recommend that women with major praevia (complete and partial PP) with previous bleeding events should be admitted at or after 34 weeks’ gestation, and that outpatient care should be considered for those with minor praevia (marginal and low-lying PP) or those without previous antepartum bleeding episodes. Nonetheless, a randomized controlled trial comparing hospital vs home care published in 1996 [8] showed a significant reduction in length of hospital stay without severe maternal and neonatal complications. The current literature has otherwise failed to identify antenatal events associated with a high risk of maternal or fetal morbidity. This study sought to identify antenatal events associated with emergency caesarean sections for profuse haemorrhage in women presenting with antepartum bleeding and PP after a first episode of such bleeding. Our objective was to establish a predictive score for emergency caesareans after the resolution of a first (sentinel) bleeding episode to help guide the obstetric management of these women.

Section snippets

Material and methods

This retrospective multicentre study examined records of women with PP from 1998 to 2013 in three maternity departments: two in Marseille, Hôpital Nord and Hôpital de la Conception, and the Hôpital d’Aix en Provence. Using the hospital's standard codes, we searched for all pregnant women during the study period who were admitted with intact membranes for antepartum bleeding and PP from 20 weeks of gestation until term and gave birth at the same hospital to a live newborn after 24 weeks. Women

Results

This study included 250 patients: 163 for the score development, and 87 for its validation. Of the 163 patients in the score development group, 46 had emergency caesareans for profuse antepartum bleeding for PP and 117 gave birth by other modes: either other caesareans (n = 81) or vaginal delivery (n = 36). An earlier gestational age at delivery (34.8 vs 37.6 weeks’ gestation; p < 0.001), lower birth weight (2128 g vs 2809 g, p < 0.001), and more postpartum haemorrhages (30.4% vs 8.5%, p < 0.001) were all

Discussion

The RCOG guidelines, last republished in 2011, recommend that women with major PP with a previous bleeding episode should be admitted to hospital and managed as inpatients from 34 weeks’ gestation [7]. Underlying these guidelines is the strong concern that sudden heavy bleeding could lead to maternal death. In the absence of identified risk factors, management has traditionally been cautious and has led to admissions that last for weeks to prevent or minimize serious maternal or fetal

Conclusion

An antepartum PP score including intensity, precocity of first bleeding, number of bleeding episodes and type of PP might be helpful in determining whether women with PP should be managed as in- or out-patients.

Conflict of interest

Claude d’Ercole consults for LFB and Ferring. Other authors report no conflict of interest.

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